Development of water resources management strategies and hydrological modelling for understanding water availability and climatic scenarios in river basins

Abstract

The aim of this study is clarified water governance, namely the respective roles of government, civil society and the private sector which directly or indirectly impact the development and management of water resources. Water resources-related conflict has been highlighted. Initially, this research study provided recommendations to resolve and minimise water-related conflict. A case study of the Ganges River Basin is then presented, and in particular, the transboundary water sharing issues between Bangladesh and India. It is includes the impact of the Farakka Barrage in the Ganges River Basin area which has led to conflict between the Ganges states since 1951. A Stackelberg leader-follower model was proposed to develop win-win strategies for mitigation of the transboundary water sharing conflict between Bangladesh and India. This can be implemented in any river basin, particularly ones involving upstream – downstream co-riparian states. Secondly, a scenario of relevant climatic drivers was generated by a statistical downscaling technique to develop water resources management strategies for the Murray Darling Basin (MDB). The regression model with either rainfall or temperature is the response and some selections of climatic indicators are considered. A correlation analysis, including a factor analysis of the climatic indicators is presented and is used to guide the choice of climatic indices for the regression models. The recommended strategies were based on a simulation process and superimposed to project the next 100 years water availability in the MDB areas.

Key words: Climatic drivers, management strategies, regression model, statistical downscaling, simulation process and water sharing.